Market Assessment Report — Idleb & Hama

MPCA 634 · Market Assessment · Syria

v2 · Round 2 — August 2026

Market
Assessment
Report

Idleb & Hama Governorates — Cash Programming Suitability

33

Traders Surveyed

2

Assessment Rounds

94.1%

Markets Functioning (R2)

82.4%

Returnee Demand ↑ (R2)

Reporting Period

May – August 2026 · Rounds 1 & 2

Survey Window

R1: 24 May – 1 Jun 2026 · R2: 19–20 Aug 2026

Implementing Partner

Shafak Organisation

Donor

International Organisation for Migration (IOM)

Exchange Rate (at Survey)

R1: 140–141 · R2: 131.5–133 New SYP per USD

Project Code

MPCA 634

Donor

Implementing Partner

Table of Contents

Market Assessment Report · Idleb & Hama · May–August 2026 · v2

01Executive Summary03 02Round 1 → Round 2 Comparison05 03Geographic Coverage & Field Map07 04Trader Profile & Market Types10 05Market Functionality Assessment12 06Restocking Capacity14 07Commodity Prices & Price Trends16 08Market Access & Inclusion19 09Returnee Impact on Markets21 10Conclusions & Recommendations23

Version Note — v2, Rounds 1 & 2

This is version 2 of the Market Assessment Report. It consolidates Round 1 (16 traders, 24 May – 1 June 2026) and Round 2 (17 traders, 19–20 August 2026) into a single document covering both rounds.

Timing and scope. Round 2 was collected after the MPCA distribution cycle, but it repeats the market-side shop and trader instruments used in Round 1. It is not a beneficiary Post-Distribution Monitoring (PDM) exercise and contains no household-level receipt, expenditure or satisfaction data. The round is therefore titled by its sequence and date rather than by its position relative to the distribution.

Methodology. Round 1 figures are reproduced exactly as issued in the June 2026 report. Round 2 averages exclude five submissions carrying clear data-entry errors — a blanket recorded at 22,600 New SYP, a diesel price of 1,200, a sugar price of 10, and two NFI prices quoted in USD rather than New SYP. Exclusions are listed in Section 02. Items with fewer than five observations are marked ⚠ and are indicative only.

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Assessment Purpose

This Market Assessment was conducted to evaluate the suitability of cash-based interventions (MPCA) in Idleb and Hama governorates. It assessed market functionality, trader restocking capacity, commodity availability, pricing dynamics, and inclusion of vulnerable groups including returnees, women, and persons with disabilities.

Executive Summary

Key Findings · MPCA 634 · Rounds 1 & 2 · May–August 2026

This Market Assessment was conducted by Shafak Organisation with the support of IOM as part of the MPCA 634 project, covering 16 traders across Idleb and Hama governorates of Syria during late May and early June 2026. The assessment evaluated market functionality, restocking capacity, commodity prices and trends, and the inclusion of vulnerable groups — to determine the suitability of Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) as a response modality. The exchange rate at the time of survey was stable at 140–141 New SYP per USD.

16

Traders Surveyed

62.5%

Markets Functioning

5.7

Avg Days to Restock

100%

All Groups Access

1

Markets are broadly functional — MPCA is an appropriate modality

62.5% of assessed markets are fully functioning and support MPCA cash programming; 31.25% are partially functioning and require monitoring; only 1 market (6.25%) was assessed as non-functioning. The overall landscape supports cash-based response with targeted safeguards for partially-functioning sites.

2

Restocking is rapid — supply resilience is adequate

50% of traders restock within 1–3 days and 37.5% within 4–7 days, yielding an average of 5.7 days. This turnaround is sufficient to absorb an influx of cash transfers without persistent stock-outs — a positive indicator for MPCA roll-out.

3

Returnee influx is driving demand — prices rising across most items

87.5% of traders confirmed that the recent returnee influx has increased demand. Prices rose for all monitored commodities except diesel (−6.6%), with eggs (+17.9%), blankets (+12%), and mattresses (+11.4%) recording the sharpest increases. Infrastructure damage and transport costs are key price drivers.

4

Inclusion indicators are strong — all groups can access markets

100% of traders confirmed equal market access for all groups. All 16 traders confirmed that women returnees and female-headed households can access markets independently and safely. 93.75% confirmed access for persons with disabilities — a strong inclusion baseline for MPCA programming.

Overall assessment: Markets in Idleb and Hama are sufficiently functional to support an MPCA cash response. Key risks to monitor are infrastructure constraints, rising prices driven by returnee demand, and the 1 non-functioning market site requiring an alternative modality.

Round 2 update — August 2026

A second assessment round covering 17 traders was collected on 19–20 August 2026, after the MPCA distribution cycle, across the same four sub-districts. Every structural indicator improved: markets rated fully functioning rose from 62.5% to 94.1%, no market was rated non-functioning, roads in good condition rose from 37.5% to 70.6%, and the median restock time fell from 3.5 to 3.0 days. The affordability picture did not improve — staples continued to rise and the share of traders judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community fell from 62.5% to 47.1%. Section 02 sets out the full comparison.

Summary of Key Metrics

At-a-Glance Dashboard · MPCA 634

2

Governorates

4

Sub-Districts

3

Trader Categories

140

New SYP / USD (Avg Rate)

12.2

Avg Competing Shops

62.5%

Roads Damaged

Market Functionality Overview

Fully Functioning

62.5% (10)

Partially Functioning

31.3% (5)

Non-Functioning

6.3%

Price Trend Summary (Month-on-Month)

Commodity	Price (Month Ago)	Price (Now)	Change (New SYP)	% Change	Trend	R2 Avg Now	R2 Change	R2 N
Eggs (per dozen)	292.5	345.0	+52.5	+17.9%	↑ Up	—	—	—
Blankets	1,411.0	1,580.0	+169.0	+12.0%	↑ Up	2,133.3	— -0.8%	3 ⚠
Mattresses	1,426.5	1,589.7	+163.2	+11.4%	↑ Up	2,300.0	▲ +13.6%	4 ⚠
Vegetable Oil (L)	227.0	246.3	+19.3	+8.5%	↑ Up	288.6	▲ +10.1%	7
Flour (kg)	61.4	65.8	+4.4	+7.2%	↑ Up	90.0	▲ +20.0%	2 ⚠
Rice (kg)	136.7	145.0	+8.3	+6.1%	↑ Up	119.3	▲ +4.4%	7
Bulgur (kg)	92.5	97.7	+5.2	+5.6%	↑ Up	90.7	▲ +2.4%	7
Chickpeas (kg)	106.6	110.0	+3.4	+3.2%	↑ Up	—	—	—
Sugar (kg)	88.7	90.3	+1.7	+1.9%	↑ Up	107.5	▲ +14.1%	6
Bread (pack)	45.0	45.0	0.0	0%	→ Stable	—	—	—
Diesel (L)	99.0	92.4	−6.6	−6.6%	↓ Down	120.0	▲ +8.9%	5

All prices in New SYP. N varies by commodity (see Section 06). Exchange rate: 140–141 New SYP/USD at time of survey.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Round 2 tracked eight of these eleven items. Flour (+20.0%) and sugar (+14.1%) were the sharpest month-on-month rises, while blankets were flat (−0.8%) and diesel rose 8.9%. Eggs, chickpeas, bread and chicken were not priced by enough Round 2 traders to report. Round 2 averages exclude five data-entry errors listed in Section 02.

Section 02

02

Round 1 → Round 2
Comparison

Change Over Time · May–June vs August 2026

Round 1 → Round 2 Comparison

16 Traders (Jun) vs 17 Traders (Aug) · Same 4 Sub-Districts

Round 2 repeats the Round 1 trader instrument across the same four sub-districts in Idleb and Hama, giving the first measured comparison of market conditions before and after the distribution cycle. The direction of travel is positive on every structural indicator: market functionality, road access and restocking speed all improved, while price pressure on staples continued and returnee purchasing power weakened.

Indicator	Round 1 (Jun)	Round 2 (Aug)	Reading
Traders surveyed	16	17	Same 4 sub-districts; Kafr Nobol town replaces Maar Tamater
Markets fully functioning	10 (62.5%)	16 (94.1%)	Sharp improvement; no non-functioning market in R2
Partially functioning	5 (31.3%)	1 (5.9%)	Monitoring caseload down from five markets to one
Non-functioning	1 (6.3%)	0 (0.0%)	Eastern Deir, non-functioning in R1, functioning for both R2 traders
Roads in good condition	6 (37.5%)	12 (70.6%)	Reverses the Round 1 road-access risk finding
Median restock time	3.5 days	3.0 days	Supply turnaround remains well inside one week
Equal access confirmed	100%	100%	Unchanged; no access barriers reported in either round
Returnee demand increased	14 (87.5%)	14 (82.4%)	Sustained returnee pressure on demand
Returnee purchasing power ≈ host	10 (62.5%)	8 (47.1%)	Deterioration — now a minority of traders
USD-only pricing	6 (37.5%)	1 (5.9%)	Marked shift back toward New SYP pricing

Overall reading. The Round 2 evidence strengthens rather than weakens the case for cash. Physical market capacity improved on every measure, so the binding constraint remains household purchasing power — and the fall in the share of traders who judge returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community (62.5% to 47.1%) suggests that constraint is tightening for the returnee caseload specifically.

What this round can and cannot show

Round 2 was collected after the MPCA distribution cycle. It shows that market capacity improved and that staple prices continued to rise, but it cannot attribute either movement to the cash transfers. All 17 traders operate in project communities, with no comparison group of markets outside the intervention. Improvement in functionality and road access may equally reflect wider recovery in the area. Attribution would require a non-project comparison group in a future round.

Data-quality note — five values excluded from Round 2 averages

Blanket — month-ago price recorded as 22,600 New SYP against a round median of 2,600
Diesel — price of 1,200 New SYP/litre against a round median of 120
Sugar — current price recorded as 10 New SYP/kg against a month-ago price of 95
Mattress — 50 New SYP/piece, and Blanket — 35 New SYP/piece (both quoted in USD, not New SYP)

Section 03

03

Geographic
Coverage

Idleb & Hama · 4 Sub-Districts · 16 Traders

Geographic Distribution of Traders

By Governorate, District & Sub-District

The assessment covered 16 traders across two governorates: Idleb (10 traders, 62.5%) spanning Al Ma'ra and Idleb districts, and Hama (6 traders, 37.5%) in Muhradah district. Data was collected across three field days: 24 May (7 traders), 25 May (3 traders), and 1 June 2026 (6 traders).

10

Idleb Traders

6

Hama Traders

3

Districts

4

Sub-Districts

Governorate	District	Sub-District	Traders	%
Idleb	Al Ma'ra	Kafr Nobol	3	18.8%
	Al Ma'ra	Maarrat An Numan	4	25.0%
	Idleb	Saraqab	3	18.8%
	Hama	Muhradah	Muhradah	6	37.5%
TOTAL			16	100%

Sub-District Breakdown

Sub-District	Traders	%	Round 2
Muhradah (Hama)	6	37.5%	6
Maarrat An Nu'man (Idleb)	4	25.0%	5
Kafr Nobol (Idleb)	3	18.8%	3
Saraqab (Idleb)	3	18.8%	3

Traders by Governorate · Round 1

Traders by Sub-District · Round 1

Methodology Note

Sample: 16 purposively selected traders stratified by trader type (food, NFI, fuel) across Idleb and Hama.

Prices: Current and month-ago prices per commodity in New SYP. Exchange rate: 140–141 New SYP/USD at survey date.

Coverage: Commodities with N<3 are indicative only. 14 commodity types tracked across 3 trader categories.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Round 2 covered 17 traders across the same four sub-districts — 11 in Idleb and 6 in Hama. Within Kafr Nobol the sampled community shifted from Maar Tamater to Kafr Nobol town; the other three sub-districts repeat the Round 1 locations.

Field Location Map

Survey Sites · Idleb (Blue) & Hama (Orange)

Interactive map: Fully interactive in HTML — zoom, pan and click markers. Circle size reflects number of traders surveyed. Colour-coded by governorate: Blue = Idleb, Orange = Hama.

Section 04

04

Trader Profile
& Market Types

Trader Categories · Currency · Market Location · Competition

Trader Profile & Market Characteristics

Work Position · Currency · Location · Competition

The 16 assessed traders span three commodity categories: Fuel traders were the largest group (6, 37.5%), followed equally by Food traders and NFI traders (5 each, 31.25%). Markets are predominantly located in town centres (50%) with significant presence in northern and western zones. Average market competition stands at 12.2 competing shops — indicating healthy market depth for MPCA cash programming.

Trader Category Distribution · Round 1

Trader Type	Count	%	Round 2
Fuel (Diesel, Jerry Cans…)	6	37.5%	6
Food Trader / Wholesaler	5	31.3%	6
NFI (Blankets, Mattresses…)	5	31.3%	5

Pricing Currency Used · Round 1

Market Location Zone

Centre/Mid-town

50% (8)

North

37.5%

West

37.5%

South

25%

East

18.8%

62.5%

Use New SYP & USD (Dual)

12.2

Avg Competing Shops

50%

Located in Town Centre

Currency note: 62.5% of traders price in both New SYP and USD depending on buyer preference. This dual-currency environment means MPCA transfers in New SYP can be readily used — traders accommodate both currencies and the local rate was stable at 140–141 New SYP/USD throughout the survey period.

Round 2 update — August 2026

The trader mix was near-identical: 6 fuel, 6 food and 5 NFI traders. The clearest change was in pricing currency — traders quoting in USD only fell from 6 to 1, with 8 pricing in New SYP alone and 8 accepting both, consistent with the New SYP strengthening from 140 to 133 per USD between rounds.

Section 05

05

Market
Functionality

MPCA Suitability Assessment · Road Quality · Competition

Market Functionality & MPCA Suitability

Functionality Rating · Road Quality · Competition Depth

Market functionality was assessed by enumerators based on trader-reported availability, restocking capacity, road access, and competitive environment. 10 of 16 markets (62.5%) are fully functioning and appropriate for MPCA cash programming. Five markets require close monitoring due to partial functionality, and one market was assessed as non-functioning — pointing to a need for an alternative in-kind modality for that site.

Market Functionality Rating · Round 1

Road & Access Quality · Round 1

Road risk: 62.5% of surveyed markets are accessed by damaged roads. This significantly raises transport costs and contributes to the supply chain pressures driving price inflation across all commodity categories.

Functionality Category	Trader Count	% of Total	MPCA Implication	R2 Traders	R2 %
✔ Functioning — supports MPCA	10	62.5%	Cash transfers can be rolled out immediately	16	94.1%
⚠ Partially functioning — monitoring needed	5	31.3%	Proceed with enhanced monitoring; address infrastructure gaps	1	5.9%
✖ Non-functioning — cash not appropriate	1	6.3%	Consider in-kind modality or referral to functional market	0	0.0%
TOTAL		16 (100%)	93.75% support or partially support MPCA	17	100%

Competition depth: Traders reported an average of 12.2 competing shops (median: 7, range: 1–45) in their marketplace. Higher competition means better price discovery and reduced risk of monopolistic pricing when cash is injected.

Market positioning: 50% of traders are in town centres — accessible to most households. Distributed coverage across north (37.5%), west (37.5%), and south (25%) zones ensures broad geographic reach for cash recipients.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Functionality improved markedly. 16 of 17 traders (94.1%) assessed their market as able to support MPCA cash programming, against 62.5% in Round 1, and no market was rated non-functioning — including Eastern Deir, the single non-functioning market in Round 1, which both of its Round 2 traders rated functioning. Road access moved the same way: 70.6% of markets are now reached by roads in good condition, against 37.5% in Round 1.

Section 06

06

Restocking
Capacity

Warehouse Restock Speed · Supply Resilience · Stock Types

Restocking Capacity & Supply Resilience

Days to Restock Warehouse · Stock Types Held

Restocking speed is a critical proxy for supply resilience in the context of an MPCA cash injection. When cash transfers reach beneficiaries simultaneously, markets must be able to replenish rapidly to avoid price spikes and stock-outs. 87.5% of traders can restock within 7 days, with half able to restock within 1–3 days — indicating strong supply chain responsiveness across the assessed markets.

5.7

Avg Days to Restock

3.5

Median Days

1

Fastest (days)

30

Slowest (days)

Restock Speed Distribution · Round 1

1–3 days

50% (8)

4–7 days

37.5% (6)

8–14 days

6.3%

15+ days

6.3%

Stock Types Held by Traders · Round 1

⚠ One trader reported a 30-day restock time — a significant outlier (std dev: 6.99 days) suggesting a remote location or limited supply chain access. This site may warrant in-kind supplementation alongside cash transfers.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Restocking remained fast and improved slightly: the median fell from 3.5 to 3.0 days, with 12 of 17 traders restocking within three days. Two traders reported 15+ days, so the tail is thinner than in Round 1 but has not disappeared. Supply turnaround continues to support a cash modality without stock-out risk.

Section 07

07

Commodity
Prices & Trends

Current Prices · Month-on-Month Changes · New SYP

Commodity Prices — Food & Fuel

Current Prices (New SYP) · N = Traders Reporting per Commodity

Prices below are drawn from the reference market prices reported by traders. Multiple traders may sell the same commodity at different prices, reflecting geographic variation and supply chain differences. Key finding: all food commodities rose in price month-on-month except bread (stable) and diesel (−6.6%). Rice (+6.1%), bulgur (+5.6%), and vegetable oil (+8.5%) all recorded meaningful increases.

Commodity	Unit	Min (New SYP)	Max (New SYP)	Median	Avg Now	N	Trend	R2 Avg Now	R2 Change	R2 N
Rice	per kg	110	220	125	145.0	6	+6.1%	119.3	▲ +4.4%	7
Bulgur	per kg	90	110	95.5	97.7	6	+5.6%	90.7	▲ +2.4%	7
Sugar	per kg	85	96	90	90.3	6	+1.9%	107.5	▲ +14.1%	6
Vegetable Oil	per litre	28	300	290	246.3	6	+8.5%	288.6	▲ +10.1%	7
Chickpeas	per kg	62	180	120	110.0	5	+3.2%	—	—	—
Flour	per kg	62	70	65	65.8	5	+7.2%	90.0	▲ +20.0%	2 ⚠
Bread	per pack (8–10 loaves)	45	45	45	45.0	2	Stable	—	—	—
Eggs	per dozen	300	390	345	345.0	2	+17.9%	—	—	—
Chicken	per kg	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000.0	1	+5.3%	—	—	—
Diesel	per litre	12	130	121	92.4	7	−6.6%	120.0	▲ +8.9%	5

Month-on-Month Price Change (%) — Food Commodities · Round 1

⚠ Items with N<3 (Bread N=2, Eggs N=2, Chicken N=1) carry high uncertainty. Vegetable oil shows a wide range (28–300 New SYP/L) reflecting different reporting units across traders; interpret average with caution.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Where Round 2 prices exist they confirm continued staple inflation — flour +20.0%, sugar +14.1%, vegetable oil +10.1%, diesel +8.9%, rice +4.4% and bulgur +2.4%. Coverage is thinner than Round 1 for several items, so figures resting on fewer than five traders are marked ⚠ and should be read as indicative.

NFI Item Prices — Mattresses & Blankets

Non-Food Items · New SYP · N=6 Traders (per item)

Non-Food Items (NFIs) — particularly mattresses and blankets — are critical components of the MPCA basket for displaced and newly returned households. Both items recorded significant price increases month-on-month: blankets +12% and mattresses +11.4%, driven by infrastructure constraints and returnee-driven demand surges. Supply origins for NFIs include Damascus and Aleppo, making them more sensitive to inter-city transport costs.

1,580

Avg Blanket Price (New SYP)

1,590

Avg Mattress Price (New SYP)

+12%

Blanket Price Increase

NFI Item	Min (New SYP)	Max (New SYP)	Median	Avg (Month Ago)	Avg (Now)	% Change	N	R2 Avg Now	R2 Change	R2 N
Mattresses	18	3,360	1,950	1,426.5	1,589.7	+11.4%	6	2,300.0	▲ +13.6%	4 ⚠
Blankets	20	3,500	1,900	1,411.0	1,580.0	+12.0%	6	2,133.3	— -0.8%	3 ⚠

NFI Price Comparison — Month Ago vs Now (New SYP Avg) · Round 1

⚠ Wide price range for NFIs: Mattresses range from 18 to 3,360 New SYP and blankets from 20 to 3,500 New SYP. This extreme spread reflects mixed quality grades in the market — from thin single-use foam to full household-grade items. The averages (1,590 / 1,580 New SYP) are indicative of mid-market quality. Supply origins span Damascus, Aleppo, and rural Hama, reflecting multi-source procurement.

📦 Standard MPCA Basket Specifications:
The MPCA transfer value is based on the following standard-grade items:
• Mattress: Single household-grade foam mattress, approx. 5–7 kg (standard thickness 8–10 cm, 190×90 cm) — suitable for adult household use.
• Blanket: Acrylic fleece blanket, approx. 1.5–2 kg (standard size 200×150 cm) — adequate for seasonal warmth.
Items priced at the low end (18–20 New SYP) represent thin or second-hand products inconsistent with basket standards. The reported average price range (1,580–1,590 New SYP) corresponds to mid-market standard-grade items used in transfer value calculation.

MPCA basket implication: The sharp price rises for blankets (+12%) and mattresses (+11.4%) — both critical for shelter dignity — underscore that MPCA transfer values must be calibrated to current market prices and reviewed monthly to preserve purchasing power for displaced and returning households.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Mattresses rose 13.6% between rounds while blankets were essentially flat at −0.8%. Both Round 2 figures exclude submissions quoted in USD rather than New SYP, and a blanket price recorded as 22,600 New SYP — see the data-quality note in Section 02. Both rest on small samples and are marked ⚠.

Section 08

08

Market Access
& Inclusion

Equal Access · PWD Access · Women's Safety · All Groups

Market Access & Inclusion Indicators

Equal Access · Persons with Disabilities · Women & Female-Headed Households

Market inclusion is a precondition for effective MPCA programming — if beneficiaries cannot physically or safely access markets, cash transfers fail to deliver. The assessment found exceptionally strong inclusion indicators across all assessed markets: 100% of traders confirmed equal access for all groups, safe access for women returnees and female-headed households, and near-universal access for persons with disabilities.

100%

Equal Group Access

100%

Women Safe Access

100%

PWD Market Access

100%

Elderly Can Access

Market Visitor Access by Group · Round 1

✔ Women & FHH Access

16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that women returnees and female-headed households can access the market independently and safely. No barriers to women's market access were reported at any surveyed site — a key positive gender indicator for MPCA suitability.

♿ PWD Access

16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that persons with disabilities have access to the marketplace (specific PWD access question). Additionally, 15 of 16 traders (93.75%) explicitly selected "Disabled People" in the multi-category access question — indicating near-universal physical accessibility across all sites.

⚖ Equal Access

16 of 16 traders (100%) confirmed that different groups in the area have equal access opportunities to the marketplace. This is a strong baseline for non-discriminatory MPCA programming.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Access findings held. All 17 Round 2 traders again confirmed that women, female-headed households and the elderly can reach the market without restriction, and none reported a gender-based barrier. In the multi-select access question 13 of 17 explicitly listed persons with disabilities, against 15 of 16 in Round 1 — a difference in question completion rather than reported access.

Section 09

09

Returnee
Impact

Demand Dynamics · Purchasing Power · Qualitative Insights

Returnee Impact on Market Demand

Demand Surge · Purchasing Power · Trader Qualitative Responses

The return of displaced populations to Idleb and Hama is having a measurable effect on market dynamics. 14 of 16 traders (87.5%) reported that the recent returnee influx has increased demand for goods. While this signals economic re-engagement, it also raises prices and can strain supply availability — particularly for households with limited purchasing power.

87.5%

Traders: Returnees ↑ Demand

62.5%

Returnee Purchasing Power ≈ Host

37.5%

Returnees Lower Purchasing Power

Returnee Demand Impact (% Traders) · Round 1

Question	Yes	No	% Yes	R2 Yes	R2 No	R2 % Yes
Returnee influx increased demand?	14	2	87.5%	14	3	82.4%
Returnee purchasing power ≈ host?	10	6	62.5%	8	9	47.1%

Qualitative Themes — Trader Responses (N=10 notes)

10/10

Increased demand for goods

All 10 traders who provided qualitative notes mentioned increased demand directly linked to the returnee influx — confirming the quantitative finding (87.5% yes rate).

2/10

Price increases noted alongside demand

2 traders explicitly linked rising prices to increased demand: "Goods are available in warehouses but rising prices negatively affect demand" and "Demand for basic commodities has increased despite rising prices."

2/10

Stock availability concern raised

2 traders noted concerns about stock availability alongside demand increases — a signal that supply chains may come under stress if returnee numbers continue to grow without corresponding restocking support.

MPCA relevance: With 37.5% of returnees assessed as having lower purchasing power than host community members, targeted MPCA transfers are critical to ensuring this sub-group can participate in the market on equal terms. The strong demand signal also validates market viability for cash programming.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Returnee demand pressure persisted, with 14 of 17 traders (82.4%) reporting increased demand, close to the 87.5% of Round 1. The significant movement is on affordability: the share judging returnee purchasing power comparable to the host community fell from 62.5% to 47.1%, making it a minority view for the first time. This is the clearest Round 2 signal of continued need for cash support to the returnee caseload.

Section 10

10

Conclusions &
Recommendations

MPCA Suitability · Key Risks · Priority Actions

Conclusions & Recommendations

MPCA 634 · Idleb & Hama · May–August 2026 · v2

Overall conclusion: Markets in Idleb and Hama governorates are broadly suitable for MPCA cash programming. 62.5% of assessed markets are fully functioning, 87.5% of traders can restock within 7 days, and inclusion indicators for all vulnerable groups are strong. Key risks — infrastructure damage, rising prices, and a small share of lower-capacity returnees — are manageable with targeted programming adjustments.

Positive Findings

✔ 62.5% of markets fully functioning for MPCA

✔ 50% of traders restock within 1–3 days

✔ Average 12.2 competing shops per market

✔ 100% women's safe and independent market access

✔ 100% equal access for all community groups

✔ 93.75% PWD market access confirmed

✔ Stable exchange rate (140–141 New SYP/USD)

Risks & Gaps

⚠ 62.5% of roads assessed as damaged

⚠ 1 market non-functioning (6.25%) — needs in-kind

⚠ 5 markets partially functioning (31.25%)

⚠ Eggs +17.9%, blankets +12%, mattresses +11.4% month-on-month

⚠ 37.5% of returnees have lower purchasing power

⚠ 1 trader: 30-day restock time (outlier)

⚠ PWD access gap at 1 market site

Priority Recommendations

R1

Proceed with MPCA in functioning markets

Immediately activate cash transfers at the 10 fully-functioning market sites. Ensure transfer values are calibrated to current prices (especially eggs, blankets, mattresses which rose >10%).

R2

Enhanced monitoring at partially-functioning sites

For the 5 partially-functioning markets, implement monthly price monitoring and market functionality re-assessments. Address infrastructure barriers (road access) where feasible through advocacy.

R3

Alternative modality for non-functioning market

The 1 non-functioning market requires in-kind assistance or referral to the nearest functional market. Investigate specific barriers to reactivation and set a reassessment timeline.

R4

MPCA transfer value review — monthly calibration

With month-on-month price increases of up to 17.9% for key items, MPCA transfer values must be reviewed monthly against the minimum expenditure basket (MEB) to preserve purchasing power.

Round 2 update — August 2026

Round 2 does not overturn the Round 1 recommendation — it strengthens it. Every structural constraint identified in June (market functionality, road access, restocking speed) improved by August, removing the operational caveats attached to the original recommendation. The affordability constraint, by contrast, persisted on staples and worsened for returnees specifically. The recommendation to proceed with MPCA therefore stands, with transfer values reviewed against the August basket rather than the June one, and the price-monitoring cycle continued into a third round.

Assessment Outcome

62.5% of assessed markets
support MPCA cash programming
in Idleb & Hama

Markets are broadly functional with rapid restocking capacity and strong inclusion indicators. Returnee demand is driving prices up — transfer value calibration and monthly monitoring are the priority actions.

Donor

Implementing Partner

MPCA 634 · Market Assessment · Idleb & Hama Governorates, Syria · May–August 2026 · v2
Implemented by Shafak Organisation · Funded by International Organisation for Migration (IOM)